BillyBot

2026 March Madness · 2 games · drop -5% · bounce +4% · poll 10s

Max Drop 30%
Min Price 25¢
Vegas Confirm 6pts
Odds DraftKings
Download Movement Download Signals Log
🟢 A-GRADE: 40-65¢ · Bounce 8%+ · Full $20-30 · HARD CEILING 65¢
⚪ Above 65¢: C-grade watch only — no email, no trade
💰 SELL EMAIL: fires at 85¢ on open A-grade positions
⚠️ LIMIT WARN: Position below 50¢ — assess hold vs cut
Favorite Opponent Tipoff Open Current Move Open Tot Total Pregame % Lo / Hi Kalshi Now Score Change Bounce Signal
🏠 NBA-Thunder-0526 ELITE 83%▲100%NBA-Spurs-0526 STRONG 57%Tue 7:30p—————61%61% / 61%61%0-0 Q0 0.0+0%—
🏠 NBA-Spurs-0528 ELITE 80%▲100%NBA-Thunder-0528 AVOID 0%Thu 7:30p—————57%56% / 58%58%0-0 Q0 0.0+1%—
TimeTeamOppTipoffPregameEntry ¢Lo ¢BounceGradeVegas MoveOpen SpreadScoreSignal
2026-05-25 19:32:02NBA-Cavs-0525NBA-Knicks-0525Mon 7:00p44%¢40¢33+7%B+0.0—22-25 Q1 3:09BUY YES [B]
2026-05-24 19:21:06NBA-Spurs-0524NBA-Thunder-0524Sun 7:00p58%¢63¢53+10%A+0.0—13-8 Q1 6:50BUY YES [A]
2026-05-24 19:19:09NBA-Spurs-0524NBA-Thunder-0524Sun 7:00p58%¢58¢53+5%B+0.0—9-8 Q1 7:26BUY YES [B]
2026-05-23 19:23:51NBA-Cavs-0523NBA-Knicks-0523Sat 7:00p56%¢53¢45+8%A+0.0—7-10 Q1 8:20BUY YES [A]
2026-05-23 19:22:04NBA-Cavs-0523NBA-Knicks-0523Sat 7:00p56%¢52¢45+7%B+0.0—7-9 Q1 8:43BUY YES [B]
2026-05-22 20:39:21NBA-Spurs-0522NBA-Thunder-0522Fri 7:30p55%¢46¢41+5%B+0.0—47-52 Q2 2:08BUY YES [B]
2026-05-21 19:33:34NBA-Knicks-0521NBA-Cavs-0521Thu 7:00p68%¢64¢53+8%A+0.0—19-20 Q1 3:24BUY YES [A]
2026-05-21 19:19:55NBA-Knicks-0521NBA-Cavs-0521Thu 7:00p68%¢61¢56+5%B+0.0—11-13 Q1 7:34BUY YES [B]
2026-05-19 19:30:03NBA-Knicks-0519NBA-Cavs-0519Tue 7:00p70%¢64¢56+8%A+0.0—10-13 Q1 4:33BUY YES [A]
2026-05-19 19:27:07NBA-Knicks-0519NBA-Cavs-0519Tue 7:00p70%¢63¢56+7%B+0.0—8-10 Q1 5:37BUY YES [B]
2026-05-18 20:27:42NBA-Thunder-0518NBA-Spurs-0518Mon 7:30p69%¢58¢49+9%A+0.0—39-44 Q2 3:46BUY YES [A]
2026-05-18 19:53:58NBA-Thunder-0518NBA-Spurs-0518Mon 7:30p69%¢63¢58+5%B+0.0—7-12 Q1 6:48BUY YES [B]
2026-05-15 20:59:59NBA-Wolves-0515NBA-Spurs-0515Fri 8:30p35%¢26¢21+5%B+1.0+5.511-18 Q1 6:57BUY YES [B]
2026-05-15 19:03:07NBA-Cavs-0515NBA-Pistons-0515Fri 6:00p62%¢45¢36+9%A+0.0-4.531-41 Q2 6:50BUY YES [A]
2026-05-15 18:20:06NBA-Cavs-0515NBA-Pistons-0515Fri 6:00p62%¢62¢55+7%B+0.0-4.59-10 Q1 7:03BUY YES [B]
2026-05-13 21:16:43NBA-Pistons-0513NBA-Cavs-0513Wed 7:00p62%¢47¢42+5%B+0.0-3.585-89 Q4 9:40BUY YES [B]
2026-05-13 19:37:48NBA-Pistons-0513NBA-Cavs-0513Wed 7:00p62%¢65¢55+10%A+0.0-3.529-25 Q1 1:13BUY YES [A]
2026-05-11 23:33:11NBA-Lakers-0511NBA-Thunder-0511Mon 9:30p19%¢25¢7+18%A+1.0+11.571-73 Q3 3:08BUY YES [A]
2026-05-11 19:47:02NBA-Cavs-0511NBA-Pistons-0511Mon 7:00p60%¢51¢45+6%B+0.0-3.527-29 Q2 10:12BUY YES [B]
2026-05-11 19:46:42NBA-Cavs-0511NBA-Pistons-0511Mon 7:00p60%¢54¢45+9%A+0.0-3.524-29 Q2 10:29BUY YES [A]
2026-05-10 20:49:10NBA-Wolves-0510NBA-Spurs-0510Sun 6:30p37%¢42¢20+22%A+1.0+4.588-94 Q4 7:19BUY YES [A]
2026-05-10 18:50:53NBA-Wolves-0510NBA-Spurs-0510Sun 6:30p37%¢36¢31+5%B+1.0+4.59-10 Q1 7:20BUY YES [B]
2026-05-09 20:26:30NBA-Lakers-0509NBA-Thunder-0509Sat 7:30p25%¢25¢14+11%A+0.0+8.546-47 Q2 4:07BUY YES [A]
2026-05-09 14:28:04NBA-Cavs-0509NBA-Pistons-0509Sat 2:00p62%¢60¢51+9%A+0.0-4.516-20 Q1 6:02BUY YES [A]
2026-05-09 14:21:56NBA-Cavs-0509NBA-Pistons-0509Sat 2:00p62%¢56¢51+5%B+0.0-4.511-16 Q1 7:39BUY YES [B]
2026-05-08 21:39:51NBA-Wolves-0508NBA-Spurs-0508Fri 8:30p36%¢33¢15+5%B+0.0+4.537-39 Q2 5:07BUY YES [B]
2026-05-08 21:12:43NBA-Wolves-0508NBA-Spurs-0508Fri 8:30p36%¢27¢15+12%A+0.0+4.514-20 Q1 1:34BUY YES [A]
2026-05-07 20:10:15NBA-Pistons-0507NBA-Cavs-0507Thu 6:00p61%¢61¢51+10%A+0.0-3.584-81 Q4 9:27BUY YES [A]
2026-05-06 21:50:58NBA-Wolves-0508NBA-Spurs-0508Fri 8:30p42%¢39¢34+5%B+0.0—HALF 35-59BUY YES [B]
2026-05-06 20:30:35NBA-Knicks-0506NBA-Sixers-0506Wed 6:00p72%¢63¢51+12%A+0.0-7.599-99 Q4 5:58BUY YES [A]
2026-05-06 19:15:47NBA-Sixers-0508NBA-Knicks-0508Fri 6:00p45%¢42¢34+8%A+0.0—54-54 Q2 3:19BUY YES [A]
2026-05-06 18:05:07NBA-Sixers-0508NBA-Knicks-0508Fri 6:00p45%¢39¢34+5%B+0.0—0-0 Q0 0.0BUY YES [B]
2026-05-05 18:17:01NBA-Pistons-0505NBA-Cavs-0505Tue 6:00p59%¢63¢54+9%A+0.0-3.56-7 Q1 8:34BUY YES [A]
2026-05-05 18:15:37NBA-Pistons-0505NBA-Cavs-0505Tue 6:00p59%¢60¢54+6%B+0.0-3.55-7 Q1 9:16BUY YES [B]
2026-05-04 19:48:38NBA-Sixers-0508NBA-Knicks-0508Fri 6:00p53%¢53¢47+6%B+0.0—24-33 Q1 7.3BUY YES [B]
2026-05-01 21:48:32NBA-Rockets-0501NBA-Lakers-0501Fri 8:30p61%¢31¢18+13%A+0.0-3.531-42 Q2 2:34BUY YES [A]
2026-05-01 19:09:27NBA-Raptors-0501NBA-Cavs-0501Fri 6:30p40%¢36¢28+8%A+1.0+3.528-32 Q1 1:05BUY YES [A]
2026-05-01 18:50:24NBA-Raptors-0501NBA-Cavs-0501Fri 6:30p40%¢38¢33+5%B+1.0+3.513-14 Q1 7:34BUY YES [B]
2026-04-30 21:19:29NBA-Wolves-0430NBA-Nuggets-0430Thu 8:30p33%¢30¢21+5%B+2.0+5.534-34 Q2 10:32BUY YES [B]
2026-04-30 20:51:30NBA-Wolves-0430NBA-Nuggets-0430Thu 8:30p33%¢30¢21+9%A+2.0+5.510-7 Q1 7:47BUY YES [A]
2026-04-30 19:47:23NBA-Sixers-0430NBA-Celtics-0430Thu 7:00p33%¢37¢28+9%A+0.0+6.523-25 Q2 10:28BUY YES [A]
2026-04-30 19:44:51NBA-Sixers-0430NBA-Celtics-0430Thu 7:00p33%¢33¢28+5%B+0.0+6.522-25 Q2 11:04BUY YES [B]
2026-04-30 18:17:11NBA-Hawks-0430NBA-Knicks-0430Thu 6:00p44%¢45¢37+8%A+0.0+2.56-5 Q1 9:26BUY YES [A]
2026-04-30 18:16:59NBA-Hawks-0430NBA-Knicks-0430Thu 6:00p44%¢43¢37+6%B+0.0+2.54-5 Q1 9:42BUY YES [B]
2026-04-29 21:25:21NBA-Lakers-0429NBA-Rockets-0429Wed 9:00p63%¢61¢56+5%B+1.0-4.57-6 Q1 7:47BUY YES [B]
2026-04-28 20:08:20NBA-Celtics-0428NBA-Sixers-0428Tue 6:00p83%¢57¢52+5%A+1.0-11.586-90 Q4 9:51BUY YES [A]
2026-04-27 21:18:15NBA-Suns-0427NBA-Thunder-0427Mon 8:30p19%¢25¢10+15%B+1.0+10.543-43 Q2 8:34BUY YES [B]
2026-04-27 20:12:33NBA-Magic-0427NBA-Pistons-0427Mon 7:00p42%¢32¢24+8%A+0.0+2.542-48 Q2 2:30BUY YES [A]
2026-04-27 19:41:30NBA-Magic-0427NBA-Pistons-0427Mon 7:00p42%¢43¢37+6%B+0.0+2.526-27 Q1 3.4BUY YES [B]
2026-04-26 21:05:26NBA-Rockets-0426NBA-Lakers-0426Sun 8:30p62%¢59¢50+9%A+1.0-4.516-17 Q1 3:43BUY YES [A]
2026-04-26 20:35:10NBA-Rockets-0426NBA-Lakers-0426Sun 8:30p62%¢60¢55+5%B+1.0-4.50-0 Q0 0.0BUY YES [B]
2026-04-26 14:50:19NBA-Blazers-0426NBA-Spurs-0426Sun 2:30p36%¢34¢29+5%B+0.0+5.50-0 Q1 11:58BUY YES [B]
2026-04-26 12:18:12NBA-Raptors-0426NBA-Cavs-0426Sun 12:00p40%¢42¢35+7%B+1.0+3.58-3 Q1 8:36BUY YES [B]
2026-04-26 12:17:50NBA-Raptors-0426NBA-Cavs-0426Sun 12:00p40%¢43¢35+8%A+1.0+3.56-3 Q1 8:36BUY YES [A]
2026-04-25 20:19:42NBA-Wolves-0425NBA-Nuggets-0425Sat 7:30p49%¢46¢38+8%A+0.0+1.522-23 Q2 10:55BUY YES [A]
2026-04-25 20:12:21NBA-Wolves-0425NBA-Nuggets-0425Sat 7:30p49%¢43¢38+5%B+0.0+1.522-21 Q1 58.7BUY YES [B]
2026-04-25 17:19:40NBA-Hawks-0425NBA-Knicks-0425Sat 5:00p47%¢46¢41+5%B+0.0+2.514-13 Q1 7:21BUY YES [B]
2026-04-25 15:24:34NBA-Suns-0425NBA-Thunder-0425Sat 2:30p22%¢25¢16+9%B+0.0+9.545-48 Q2 4:56BUY YES [B]
2026-04-25 12:45:42NBA-Magic-0425NBA-Pistons-0425Sat 12:00p46%¢47¢39+8%A+0.0+2.536-36 Q2 7:57BUY YES [A]
2026-04-25 12:44:32NBA-Magic-0425NBA-Pistons-0425Sat 12:00p46%¢44¢39+5%B+0.0+2.533-36 Q2 8:36BUY YES [B]
2026-04-24 18:21:06NBA-Sixers-0424NBA-Celtics-0424Fri 6:00p28%¢28¢20+8%A+0.0+7.59-6 Q1 7:50BUY YES [A]
2026-04-24 18:17:56NBA-Sixers-0424NBA-Celtics-0424Fri 6:00p28%¢25¢20+5%B+0.0+7.55-4 Q1 9:35BUY YES [B]
2026-04-23 19:18:56NBA-Raptors-0423NBA-Cavs-0423Thu 7:00p42%¢45¢36+9%A+0.0+2.510-10 Q1 7:46BUY YES [A]
2026-04-23 19:16:29NBA-Raptors-0423NBA-Cavs-0423Thu 7:00p42%¢41¢36+5%B+0.0+2.57-7 Q1 8:47BUY YES [B]
2026-04-23 18:23:23NBA-Hawks-0425NBA-Knicks-0425Sat 5:00p52%¢50¢45+5%B+0.0+1.56-7 Q1 7:09BUY YES [B]
2026-04-21 21:53:42NBA-Lakers-0421NBA-Rockets-0421Tue 9:30p37%¢38¢29+9%A+0.0+4.59-9 Q1 8:00BUY YES [A]
2026-04-21 21:50:45NBA-Lakers-0421NBA-Rockets-0421Tue 9:30p37%¢36¢29+7%B+0.0+4.55-5 Q1 9:47BUY YES [B]
2026-04-20 22:55:05NBA-Nuggets-0420NBA-Wolves-0420Mon 9:30p73%¢59¢49+10%A+0.0-6.558-64 Q2 53.1BUY YES [A]
2026-04-19 17:57:04NBA-Pistons-0419NBA-Magic-0419Sun 5:30p79%¢64¢56+5%B+0.0-8.518-27 Q1 3:12BUY YES [B]
2026-04-18 20:36:55NBA-Rockets-0424NBA-Lakers-0424Fri 7:00p72%¢64¢59+5%B+0.0—38-46 Q2 4:42BUY YES [B]
2026-04-18 15:07:44NBA-Nuggets-0418NBA-Wolves-0418Sat 2:30p72%¢62¢53+9%A+0.0-6.520-27 Q1 3:14BUY YES [A]
2026-04-18 15:07:30NBA-Nuggets-0418NBA-Wolves-0418Sat 2:30p72%¢60¢53+7%B+0.0-6.520-27 Q1 3:24BUY YES [B]
2026-04-15 18:58:13NBA-Sixers-0415NBA-Magic-0415Wed 6:30p54%¢55¢47+8%A+0.0-1.514-14 Q1 5:14BUY YES [A]
2026-04-15 18:56:40NBA-Sixers-0415NBA-Magic-0415Wed 6:30p54%¢52¢47+5%B+0.0-1.514-14 Q1 6:21BUY YES [B]
2026-04-14 22:46:22NBA-Suns-0414NBA-Blazers-0414Tue 9:00p50%¢28¢21+7%B+0.0-1.566-75 Q3 7:19BUY YES [B]
2026-04-14 22:05:43NBA-Suns-0414NBA-Blazers-0414Tue 9:00p60%¢38¢29+9%A+1.0-3.545-55 Q2 4:18BUY YES [A]
2026-04-14 22:05:30NBA-Suns-0414NBA-Blazers-0414Tue 9:00p60%¢36¢29+7%B+1.0-3.545-55 Q2 4:20BUY YES [B]
2026-04-14 20:17:08NBA-Charlotte-0414NBA-Heat-0414Tue 6:30p69%¢64¢52+12%A+0.0-5.578-79 Q3 2:39BUY YES [A]
2026-04-12 20:00:31NBA-Spurs-0412NBA-Nuggets-0412Sun 7:30p82%¢64¢58+6%A+2.0-11.524-26 Q1 4:01BUY YES [A]
2026-04-12 19:51:38NBA-Clippers-0412NBA-Warriors-0412Sun 7:30p71%¢55¢48+7%B+0.0-6.510-12 Q1 5:53BUY YES [B]
2026-04-12 19:47:22NBA-Clippers-0412NBA-Warriors-0412Sun 7:30p71%¢58¢48+10%A+0.0-6.510-10 Q1 6:50BUY YES [A]
2026-04-12 18:47:02NBA-Celtics-0412NBA-Magic-0412Sun 5:00p15%¢27¢7+20%A+0.0+12.573-73 Q3 5:06BUY YES [A]
2026-04-10 21:25:41NBA-Blazers-0410NBA-Clippers-0410Fri 9:00p53%¢52¢44+8%A+0.0-1.512-12 Q1 8:29BUY YES [A]
2026-04-10 21:25:27NBA-Blazers-0410NBA-Clippers-0410Fri 9:00p53%¢50¢44+6%B+0.0-1.512-12 Q1 8:29BUY YES [B]
2026-04-10 18:49:32NBA-Charlotte-0410NBA-Pistons-0410Fri 6:00p64%¢58¢51+7%B-1.0-5.541-46 Q2 8:02BUY YES [B]
2026-04-10 18:45:46NBA-Charlotte-0410NBA-Pistons-0410Fri 6:00p64%¢63¢51+12%A-1.0-5.535-36 Q2 10:46BUY YES [A]
2026-04-09 21:18:52NBA-Warriors-0409NBA-Lakers-0409Thu 9:00p64%¢42¢37+5%B+3.0-4.54-9 Q1 8:35BUY YES [B]
2026-04-09 20:45:37NBA-Knicks-0409NBA-Celtics-0409Thu 6:30p63%¢54¢46+8%A+3.0-4.5100-101 Q4 3:22BUY YES [A]
2026-04-09 20:45:24NBA-Knicks-0409NBA-Celtics-0409Thu 6:30p63%¢52¢46+6%B+3.0-4.5100-101 Q4 3:22BUY YES [B]
2026-04-09 20:29:08NBA-Knicks-0409NBA-Celtics-0409Thu 6:30p63%¢57¢48+9%A+1.0-4.583-83 Q4 11:20BUY YES [A]
2026-04-09 19:13:39NBA-Knicks-0409NBA-Celtics-0409Thu 6:30p63%¢58¢50+8%A+1.0-4.526-29 Q2 11:26BUY YES [A]
2026-04-09 19:05:41NBA-Knicks-0409NBA-Celtics-0409Thu 6:30p63%¢57¢50+7%B+1.0-4.517-21 Q1 1:58BUY YES [B]
2026-04-09 18:26:11NBA-Raptors-0409NBA-Heat-0409Thu 6:00p63%¢59¢51+8%A+1.0-4.513-16 Q1 5:54BUY YES [A]
2026-04-09 18:25:36NBA-Raptors-0409NBA-Heat-0409Thu 6:00p63%¢58¢51+7%B+1.0-4.513-16 Q1 5:54BUY YES [B]
2026-04-08 20:47:59NBA-Spurs-0408NBA-Blazers-0408Wed 8:30p60%¢60¢51+9%A+0.0-3.510-8 Q1 8:12BUY YES [A]
2026-04-08 20:46:47NBA-Spurs-0408NBA-Blazers-0408Wed 8:30p60%¢58¢51+7%B+0.0-3.57-8 Q1 8:43BUY YES [B]
2026-04-08 19:12:02NBA-Cavs-0408NBA-Hawks-0408Wed 6:00p53%¢42¢34+8%A-2.0-1.5HALF 60-67BUY YES [A]
2026-04-08 19:10:51NBA-Cavs-0408NBA-Hawks-0408Wed 6:00p53%¢40¢34+6%B-2.0-1.5HALF 60-67BUY YES [B]
2026-04-07 23:05:40NBA-Warriors-0407NBA-Kings-0407Tue 9:00p89%¢65¢59+6%A-3.0-13.595-97 Q4 6:36BUY YES [A]
2026-04-07 22:17:22NBA-Suns-0407NBA-Rockets-0407Tue 10:00p51%¢54¢45+9%A+0.0-1.58-5 Q1 9:18BUY YES [A]
2026-04-07 19:52:22NBA-Celtics-0407NBA-Charlotte-0407Tue 7:00p66%¢47¢42+5%B+1.0-4.530-39 Q2 8:12BUY YES [B]
2026-04-07 19:41:47NBA-Celtics-0407NBA-Charlotte-0407Tue 7:00p66%¢52¢42+10%A+1.0-4.523-31 Q2 11:13BUY YES [A]
2026-04-07 19:20:30NBA-Celtics-0407NBA-Charlotte-0407Tue 7:00p66%¢61¢56+5%B+0.0-4.513-16 Q1 6:17BUY YES [B]
2026-04-07 19:20:03NBA-Celtics-0407NBA-Charlotte-0407Tue 7:00p66%¢64¢56+8%A+0.0-4.513-13 Q1 6:41BUY YES [A]

📅 Yesterday's Review — Monday, May 25

0
NBA Wins
1
NBA Losses
0
Bounces
1
Buy Signals
0
Sell Signals

🏀 NBA

TeamPregameLowHighResultSignalsScore
Cleveland Cavaliers
vs New York Knicks		45c1c100cLOSSBUY 40c FINAL 93-130

🎯 BillyBot Signals Deep Dive — Monday, May 25

TeamGradePregameEntryBounceScore at SignalResult
Cleveland Cavaliers
vs New York Knicks		B44c40c722-25 Q1 3:09LOSS
# BILLYBOT NBA SIGNAL ANALYSIS ## 1. SIGNAL SCORECARD **Cleveland Cavaliers** | Grade B | Entry 40c | **LOSS** Signal logic completely failed - entered on early 3-point deficit but Cavs collapsed into 37-point blowout loss. Price crater from 40c to 1c was justified. **Overall Record: 0 wins / 1 total (0%)** ## 2. VOLATILITY REPORT **Most Volatile:** 1. **Cleveland Cavaliers (99c swing)** - Massive movement from pregame favorite (45c) to complete writeoff (1c low). Driven by historic offensive collapse against Knicks defense. Predictable once the rout began in Q1. **Note:** Only one game provided in dataset - cannot analyze top 3 or bottom 2 games without additional volatility data. ## 3. GRADE ANALYSIS **Grade B Performance: 0/1 (0%)** - Single Grade B signal failed catastrophically - Need larger sample size, but early indication that Grade B may be triggering too aggressively on minor early deficits - No Grade A or C signals fired for comparison ## 4. WHAT BILLYBOT CAUGHT / WHAT IT MISSED **What it Caught:** - System correctly identified 7-point bounce opportunity at reasonable 40c entry price - Timing was precise (Q1 3:09 with 22-25 deficit) **What it Missed:** - Failed to recognize this wasn't a standard deficit but start of systematic breakdown - No risk management signal as price cratered - should flag when bounce thesis invalidated - Cavs shot poorly and defense collapsed - metrics system needs better real-time recalibration triggers ## 5. TREND WATCH 1. **Blowout Detection Gap** - System needs better filters to distinguish recoverable deficits from team implosions. 37-point final margin suggests fundamental breakdown, not variance. 2. **Grade B Aggression** - 40c entry on 3-point Q1 deficit may be too eager. Consider requiring larger sample size or additional confirming indicators before Grade B triggers. 3. **Exit Strategy Absence** - No stop-loss or thesis invalidation signals detected. System needs defensive protocols when bounce narrative breaks down completely.

📌 Today's Analysis

• Oklahoma City Thunder opens at 61c as home favorite (— spread) — bounce watch if price drops to 47c or below
• San Antonio Spurs opens at 57c as home favorite (— spread) — bounce watch if price drops to 47c or below

📋 Signal Framework

SignalTriggerAction
🟢 BUY WARNINGHome favorite drops to 47c or below mid-gameConsider entry — your call
🔔 SELL WARNINGPrice recovers to 70c after entryConsider exit — your call
🚫 No BUY SignalQ4 with less than 8 minutes remainingToo late to enter
⚠️ Limit WarnPosition drops below 50c after entryAssess hold vs cut

📰 Daily News — May 26, 2026  ·  Updated: 12:00 PM

SAN ANTONIO @ OKLAHOMA CITY — Thunder missing key scorer Jalen Williams
Oklahoma City loses significant offensive firepower with Jalen Williams sidelined, while San Antonio gets healthier with only David Jones Garcia out. Kalshi prices Thunder at 61c with ESPN giving them 59.9% win probability. Thunder overpriced at 61c given Williams' absence levels this matchup considerably.

📊 Morning Brief — 2026-05-26

**TODAY'S PREVIEW** The 2026 NBA season average home favorite win rate is 55% -- teams priced above 55c are market favorites, below 55c are undervalued. **Oklahoma City Thunder (Home, 61c):** Priced 6c above fair value in this back-to-back series opener against San Antonio. Thunder unlikely to dip to bounce territory at 47c given their 61c pregame price suggests market confidence. Tuesday 7:30p tipoff gives standard rest advantage to the home side. **San Antonio Spurs (Home, 57c):** Just 2c above fair value for Thursday's return leg, making this the more attractive bounce candidate of the two games. Spurs could easily dip toward 47c if early Thunder momentum builds, especially coming off Tuesday's road game. Thursday 7:30p tipoff in San Antonio. **TONIGHT'S PLAY PRIORITY:** 1. San Antonio Spurs Thursday -- closer to fair value at 57c, higher probability of 47c dip on back-to-back scheduling concerns 2. Oklahoma City Thunder Tuesday -- 61c pregame leaves less bounce runway, but still Tier 1 eligible if market overreacts **SITTING BUYS** Oklahoma City Thunder | Buy at 44c | Strong home favorite but priced 6c above fair, only buying if significant market overreaction drops price near bounce trigger San Antonio Spurs | Buy at 46c | Best bounce candidate at just 2c above fair value, setting entry just above 47c trigger to catch expected dip **YESTERDAY'S REVIEW** Cleveland Cavaliers: 45c pregame, 1c session low, LOSS 93-130. Perfect Tier 2 bounce setup fired BUY signal at 40c but could not overcome blowout loss.
Kalshi: 12:18:30  ·  Odds: 12:00:14