BillyBot

2026 March Madness · 6 games · drop -5% · bounce +4% · poll 10s

Max Drop 30%
Min Price 25¢
Vegas Confirm 6pts
Odds DraftKings
Download Movement Download Signals Log
🟢 A-GRADE: 40-65¢ · Bounce 8%+ · Full $20-30 · HARD CEILING 65¢
⚪ Above 65¢: C-grade watch only — no email, no trade
💰 SELL EMAIL: fires at 85¢ on open A-grade positions
⚠️ LIMIT WARN: Position below 50¢ — assess hold vs cut
Favorite Opponent Tipoff Open Current Move Open Tot Total Pregame % Lo / Hi Kalshi Now Score Change Bounce Signal
🏠 NBA-Cavs-0523 AVERAGE 30%NBA-Knicks-0523 WEAK 36%▲66%Sat 7:00p48%48% / 50%50%FINAL 104-115+2%👁 watch up
🏠 NBA-Spurs-0524 ELITE 80%▲100%NBA-Thunder-0524 AVOID 0%Sun 7:00p54%53% / 59%56%FINAL 113-122+2%0%👁 watch up
🏠 NBA-Knicks-0521 ELITE 75%▲100%NBA-Cavs-0521 STRONG 54%Thu 7:00p68%68% / 69%68%FINAL 115-104+0%⏱ final minutes
🏠 NBA-Spurs-0522 ELITE 80%▲100%NBA-Thunder-0522 AVOID 0%Fri 7:30p55%51% / 56%56%FINAL 113-122+1%⏱ final minutes
🏠 NBA-Cavs-0525 AVERAGE 30%NBA-Knicks-0525 WEAK 36%▲66%Mon 7:00p48%47% / 53%47%FINAL 104-115-1%0%⏱ final minutes
🏠 NBA-Thunder-0520 ELITE 83%▲100%NBA-Spurs-0520 STRONG 57%Wed 7:30p68%60% / 100%FINALFINAL 122-113
TimeTeamOppTipoffPregameEntry ¢Lo ¢BounceGradeVegas MoveOpen SpreadScoreSignal
2026-05-19 19:30:03NBA-Knicks-0519NBA-Cavs-0519Tue 7:00p70%¢64¢56+8%A+0.010-13 Q1 4:33BUY YES [A]
2026-05-19 19:27:07NBA-Knicks-0519NBA-Cavs-0519Tue 7:00p70%¢63¢56+7%B+0.08-10 Q1 5:37BUY YES [B]
2026-05-18 20:27:42NBA-Thunder-0518NBA-Spurs-0518Mon 7:30p69%¢58¢49+9%A+0.039-44 Q2 3:46BUY YES [A]
2026-05-18 19:53:58NBA-Thunder-0518NBA-Spurs-0518Mon 7:30p69%¢63¢58+5%B+0.07-12 Q1 6:48BUY YES [B]
2026-05-15 20:59:59NBA-Wolves-0515NBA-Spurs-0515Fri 8:30p35%¢26¢21+5%B+1.0+5.511-18 Q1 6:57BUY YES [B]
2026-05-15 19:03:07NBA-Cavs-0515NBA-Pistons-0515Fri 6:00p62%¢45¢36+9%A+0.0-4.531-41 Q2 6:50BUY YES [A]
2026-05-15 18:20:06NBA-Cavs-0515NBA-Pistons-0515Fri 6:00p62%¢62¢55+7%B+0.0-4.59-10 Q1 7:03BUY YES [B]
2026-05-13 21:16:43NBA-Pistons-0513NBA-Cavs-0513Wed 7:00p62%¢47¢42+5%B+0.0-3.585-89 Q4 9:40BUY YES [B]
2026-05-13 19:37:48NBA-Pistons-0513NBA-Cavs-0513Wed 7:00p62%¢65¢55+10%A+0.0-3.529-25 Q1 1:13BUY YES [A]
2026-05-11 23:33:11NBA-Lakers-0511NBA-Thunder-0511Mon 9:30p19%¢25¢7+18%A+1.0+11.571-73 Q3 3:08BUY YES [A]
2026-05-11 19:47:02NBA-Cavs-0511NBA-Pistons-0511Mon 7:00p60%¢51¢45+6%B+0.0-3.527-29 Q2 10:12BUY YES [B]
2026-05-11 19:46:42NBA-Cavs-0511NBA-Pistons-0511Mon 7:00p60%¢54¢45+9%A+0.0-3.524-29 Q2 10:29BUY YES [A]
2026-05-10 20:49:10NBA-Wolves-0510NBA-Spurs-0510Sun 6:30p37%¢42¢20+22%A+1.0+4.588-94 Q4 7:19BUY YES [A]
2026-05-10 18:50:53NBA-Wolves-0510NBA-Spurs-0510Sun 6:30p37%¢36¢31+5%B+1.0+4.59-10 Q1 7:20BUY YES [B]
2026-05-09 20:26:30NBA-Lakers-0509NBA-Thunder-0509Sat 7:30p25%¢25¢14+11%A+0.0+8.546-47 Q2 4:07BUY YES [A]
2026-05-09 14:28:04NBA-Cavs-0509NBA-Pistons-0509Sat 2:00p62%¢60¢51+9%A+0.0-4.516-20 Q1 6:02BUY YES [A]
2026-05-09 14:21:56NBA-Cavs-0509NBA-Pistons-0509Sat 2:00p62%¢56¢51+5%B+0.0-4.511-16 Q1 7:39BUY YES [B]
2026-05-08 21:39:51NBA-Wolves-0508NBA-Spurs-0508Fri 8:30p36%¢33¢15+5%B+0.0+4.537-39 Q2 5:07BUY YES [B]
2026-05-08 21:12:43NBA-Wolves-0508NBA-Spurs-0508Fri 8:30p36%¢27¢15+12%A+0.0+4.514-20 Q1 1:34BUY YES [A]
2026-05-07 20:10:15NBA-Pistons-0507NBA-Cavs-0507Thu 6:00p61%¢61¢51+10%A+0.0-3.584-81 Q4 9:27BUY YES [A]
2026-05-06 21:50:58NBA-Wolves-0508NBA-Spurs-0508Fri 8:30p42%¢39¢34+5%B+0.0HALF 35-59BUY YES [B]
2026-05-06 20:30:35NBA-Knicks-0506NBA-Sixers-0506Wed 6:00p72%¢63¢51+12%A+0.0-7.599-99 Q4 5:58BUY YES [A]
2026-05-06 19:15:47NBA-Sixers-0508NBA-Knicks-0508Fri 6:00p45%¢42¢34+8%A+0.054-54 Q2 3:19BUY YES [A]
2026-05-06 18:05:07NBA-Sixers-0508NBA-Knicks-0508Fri 6:00p45%¢39¢34+5%B+0.00-0 Q0 0.0BUY YES [B]
2026-05-05 18:17:01NBA-Pistons-0505NBA-Cavs-0505Tue 6:00p59%¢63¢54+9%A+0.0-3.56-7 Q1 8:34BUY YES [A]
2026-05-05 18:15:37NBA-Pistons-0505NBA-Cavs-0505Tue 6:00p59%¢60¢54+6%B+0.0-3.55-7 Q1 9:16BUY YES [B]
2026-05-04 19:48:38NBA-Sixers-0508NBA-Knicks-0508Fri 6:00p53%¢53¢47+6%B+0.024-33 Q1 7.3BUY YES [B]
2026-05-01 21:48:32NBA-Rockets-0501NBA-Lakers-0501Fri 8:30p61%¢31¢18+13%A+0.0-3.531-42 Q2 2:34BUY YES [A]
2026-05-01 19:09:27NBA-Raptors-0501NBA-Cavs-0501Fri 6:30p40%¢36¢28+8%A+1.0+3.528-32 Q1 1:05BUY YES [A]
2026-05-01 18:50:24NBA-Raptors-0501NBA-Cavs-0501Fri 6:30p40%¢38¢33+5%B+1.0+3.513-14 Q1 7:34BUY YES [B]
2026-04-30 21:19:29NBA-Wolves-0430NBA-Nuggets-0430Thu 8:30p33%¢30¢21+5%B+2.0+5.534-34 Q2 10:32BUY YES [B]
2026-04-30 20:51:30NBA-Wolves-0430NBA-Nuggets-0430Thu 8:30p33%¢30¢21+9%A+2.0+5.510-7 Q1 7:47BUY YES [A]
2026-04-30 19:47:23NBA-Sixers-0430NBA-Celtics-0430Thu 7:00p33%¢37¢28+9%A+0.0+6.523-25 Q2 10:28BUY YES [A]
2026-04-30 19:44:51NBA-Sixers-0430NBA-Celtics-0430Thu 7:00p33%¢33¢28+5%B+0.0+6.522-25 Q2 11:04BUY YES [B]
2026-04-30 18:17:11NBA-Hawks-0430NBA-Knicks-0430Thu 6:00p44%¢45¢37+8%A+0.0+2.56-5 Q1 9:26BUY YES [A]
2026-04-30 18:16:59NBA-Hawks-0430NBA-Knicks-0430Thu 6:00p44%¢43¢37+6%B+0.0+2.54-5 Q1 9:42BUY YES [B]
2026-04-29 21:25:21NBA-Lakers-0429NBA-Rockets-0429Wed 9:00p63%¢61¢56+5%B+1.0-4.57-6 Q1 7:47BUY YES [B]
2026-04-28 20:08:20NBA-Celtics-0428NBA-Sixers-0428Tue 6:00p83%¢57¢52+5%A+1.0-11.586-90 Q4 9:51BUY YES [A]
2026-04-27 21:18:15NBA-Suns-0427NBA-Thunder-0427Mon 8:30p19%¢25¢10+15%B+1.0+10.543-43 Q2 8:34BUY YES [B]
2026-04-27 20:12:33NBA-Magic-0427NBA-Pistons-0427Mon 7:00p42%¢32¢24+8%A+0.0+2.542-48 Q2 2:30BUY YES [A]
2026-04-27 19:41:30NBA-Magic-0427NBA-Pistons-0427Mon 7:00p42%¢43¢37+6%B+0.0+2.526-27 Q1 3.4BUY YES [B]
2026-04-26 21:05:26NBA-Rockets-0426NBA-Lakers-0426Sun 8:30p62%¢59¢50+9%A+1.0-4.516-17 Q1 3:43BUY YES [A]
2026-04-26 20:35:10NBA-Rockets-0426NBA-Lakers-0426Sun 8:30p62%¢60¢55+5%B+1.0-4.50-0 Q0 0.0BUY YES [B]
2026-04-26 14:50:19NBA-Blazers-0426NBA-Spurs-0426Sun 2:30p36%¢34¢29+5%B+0.0+5.50-0 Q1 11:58BUY YES [B]
2026-04-26 12:18:12NBA-Raptors-0426NBA-Cavs-0426Sun 12:00p40%¢42¢35+7%B+1.0+3.58-3 Q1 8:36BUY YES [B]
2026-04-26 12:17:50NBA-Raptors-0426NBA-Cavs-0426Sun 12:00p40%¢43¢35+8%A+1.0+3.56-3 Q1 8:36BUY YES [A]
2026-04-25 20:19:42NBA-Wolves-0425NBA-Nuggets-0425Sat 7:30p49%¢46¢38+8%A+0.0+1.522-23 Q2 10:55BUY YES [A]
2026-04-25 20:12:21NBA-Wolves-0425NBA-Nuggets-0425Sat 7:30p49%¢43¢38+5%B+0.0+1.522-21 Q1 58.7BUY YES [B]
2026-04-25 17:19:40NBA-Hawks-0425NBA-Knicks-0425Sat 5:00p47%¢46¢41+5%B+0.0+2.514-13 Q1 7:21BUY YES [B]
2026-04-25 15:24:34NBA-Suns-0425NBA-Thunder-0425Sat 2:30p22%¢25¢16+9%B+0.0+9.545-48 Q2 4:56BUY YES [B]
2026-04-25 12:45:42NBA-Magic-0425NBA-Pistons-0425Sat 12:00p46%¢47¢39+8%A+0.0+2.536-36 Q2 7:57BUY YES [A]
2026-04-25 12:44:32NBA-Magic-0425NBA-Pistons-0425Sat 12:00p46%¢44¢39+5%B+0.0+2.533-36 Q2 8:36BUY YES [B]
2026-04-24 18:21:06NBA-Sixers-0424NBA-Celtics-0424Fri 6:00p28%¢28¢20+8%A+0.0+7.59-6 Q1 7:50BUY YES [A]
2026-04-24 18:17:56NBA-Sixers-0424NBA-Celtics-0424Fri 6:00p28%¢25¢20+5%B+0.0+7.55-4 Q1 9:35BUY YES [B]
2026-04-23 19:18:56NBA-Raptors-0423NBA-Cavs-0423Thu 7:00p42%¢45¢36+9%A+0.0+2.510-10 Q1 7:46BUY YES [A]
2026-04-23 19:16:29NBA-Raptors-0423NBA-Cavs-0423Thu 7:00p42%¢41¢36+5%B+0.0+2.57-7 Q1 8:47BUY YES [B]
2026-04-23 18:23:23NBA-Hawks-0425NBA-Knicks-0425Sat 5:00p52%¢50¢45+5%B+0.0+1.56-7 Q1 7:09BUY YES [B]
2026-04-21 21:53:42NBA-Lakers-0421NBA-Rockets-0421Tue 9:30p37%¢38¢29+9%A+0.0+4.59-9 Q1 8:00BUY YES [A]
2026-04-21 21:50:45NBA-Lakers-0421NBA-Rockets-0421Tue 9:30p37%¢36¢29+7%B+0.0+4.55-5 Q1 9:47BUY YES [B]
2026-04-20 22:55:05NBA-Nuggets-0420NBA-Wolves-0420Mon 9:30p73%¢59¢49+10%A+0.0-6.558-64 Q2 53.1BUY YES [A]
2026-04-19 17:57:04NBA-Pistons-0419NBA-Magic-0419Sun 5:30p79%¢64¢56+5%B+0.0-8.518-27 Q1 3:12BUY YES [B]
2026-04-18 20:36:55NBA-Rockets-0424NBA-Lakers-0424Fri 7:00p72%¢64¢59+5%B+0.038-46 Q2 4:42BUY YES [B]
2026-04-18 15:07:44NBA-Nuggets-0418NBA-Wolves-0418Sat 2:30p72%¢62¢53+9%A+0.0-6.520-27 Q1 3:14BUY YES [A]
2026-04-18 15:07:30NBA-Nuggets-0418NBA-Wolves-0418Sat 2:30p72%¢60¢53+7%B+0.0-6.520-27 Q1 3:24BUY YES [B]
2026-04-15 18:58:13NBA-Sixers-0415NBA-Magic-0415Wed 6:30p54%¢55¢47+8%A+0.0-1.514-14 Q1 5:14BUY YES [A]
2026-04-15 18:56:40NBA-Sixers-0415NBA-Magic-0415Wed 6:30p54%¢52¢47+5%B+0.0-1.514-14 Q1 6:21BUY YES [B]
2026-04-14 22:46:22NBA-Suns-0414NBA-Blazers-0414Tue 9:00p50%¢28¢21+7%B+0.0-1.566-75 Q3 7:19BUY YES [B]
2026-04-14 22:05:43NBA-Suns-0414NBA-Blazers-0414Tue 9:00p60%¢38¢29+9%A+1.0-3.545-55 Q2 4:18BUY YES [A]
2026-04-14 22:05:30NBA-Suns-0414NBA-Blazers-0414Tue 9:00p60%¢36¢29+7%B+1.0-3.545-55 Q2 4:20BUY YES [B]
2026-04-14 20:17:08NBA-Charlotte-0414NBA-Heat-0414Tue 6:30p69%¢64¢52+12%A+0.0-5.578-79 Q3 2:39BUY YES [A]
2026-04-12 20:00:31NBA-Spurs-0412NBA-Nuggets-0412Sun 7:30p82%¢64¢58+6%A+2.0-11.524-26 Q1 4:01BUY YES [A]
2026-04-12 19:51:38NBA-Clippers-0412NBA-Warriors-0412Sun 7:30p71%¢55¢48+7%B+0.0-6.510-12 Q1 5:53BUY YES [B]
2026-04-12 19:47:22NBA-Clippers-0412NBA-Warriors-0412Sun 7:30p71%¢58¢48+10%A+0.0-6.510-10 Q1 6:50BUY YES [A]
2026-04-12 18:47:02NBA-Celtics-0412NBA-Magic-0412Sun 5:00p15%¢27¢7+20%A+0.0+12.573-73 Q3 5:06BUY YES [A]
2026-04-10 21:25:41NBA-Blazers-0410NBA-Clippers-0410Fri 9:00p53%¢52¢44+8%A+0.0-1.512-12 Q1 8:29BUY YES [A]
2026-04-10 21:25:27NBA-Blazers-0410NBA-Clippers-0410Fri 9:00p53%¢50¢44+6%B+0.0-1.512-12 Q1 8:29BUY YES [B]
2026-04-10 18:49:32NBA-Charlotte-0410NBA-Pistons-0410Fri 6:00p64%¢58¢51+7%B-1.0-5.541-46 Q2 8:02BUY YES [B]
2026-04-10 18:45:46NBA-Charlotte-0410NBA-Pistons-0410Fri 6:00p64%¢63¢51+12%A-1.0-5.535-36 Q2 10:46BUY YES [A]
2026-04-09 21:18:52NBA-Warriors-0409NBA-Lakers-0409Thu 9:00p64%¢42¢37+5%B+3.0-4.54-9 Q1 8:35BUY YES [B]
2026-04-09 20:45:37NBA-Knicks-0409NBA-Celtics-0409Thu 6:30p63%¢54¢46+8%A+3.0-4.5100-101 Q4 3:22BUY YES [A]
2026-04-09 20:45:24NBA-Knicks-0409NBA-Celtics-0409Thu 6:30p63%¢52¢46+6%B+3.0-4.5100-101 Q4 3:22BUY YES [B]
2026-04-09 20:29:08NBA-Knicks-0409NBA-Celtics-0409Thu 6:30p63%¢57¢48+9%A+1.0-4.583-83 Q4 11:20BUY YES [A]
2026-04-09 19:13:39NBA-Knicks-0409NBA-Celtics-0409Thu 6:30p63%¢58¢50+8%A+1.0-4.526-29 Q2 11:26BUY YES [A]
2026-04-09 19:05:41NBA-Knicks-0409NBA-Celtics-0409Thu 6:30p63%¢57¢50+7%B+1.0-4.517-21 Q1 1:58BUY YES [B]
2026-04-09 18:26:11NBA-Raptors-0409NBA-Heat-0409Thu 6:00p63%¢59¢51+8%A+1.0-4.513-16 Q1 5:54BUY YES [A]
2026-04-09 18:25:36NBA-Raptors-0409NBA-Heat-0409Thu 6:00p63%¢58¢51+7%B+1.0-4.513-16 Q1 5:54BUY YES [B]
2026-04-08 20:47:59NBA-Spurs-0408NBA-Blazers-0408Wed 8:30p60%¢60¢51+9%A+0.0-3.510-8 Q1 8:12BUY YES [A]
2026-04-08 20:46:47NBA-Spurs-0408NBA-Blazers-0408Wed 8:30p60%¢58¢51+7%B+0.0-3.57-8 Q1 8:43BUY YES [B]
2026-04-08 19:12:02NBA-Cavs-0408NBA-Hawks-0408Wed 6:00p53%¢42¢34+8%A-2.0-1.5HALF 60-67BUY YES [A]
2026-04-08 19:10:51NBA-Cavs-0408NBA-Hawks-0408Wed 6:00p53%¢40¢34+6%B-2.0-1.5HALF 60-67BUY YES [B]
2026-04-07 23:05:40NBA-Warriors-0407NBA-Kings-0407Tue 9:00p89%¢65¢59+6%A-3.0-13.595-97 Q4 6:36BUY YES [A]
2026-04-07 22:17:22NBA-Suns-0407NBA-Rockets-0407Tue 10:00p51%¢54¢45+9%A+0.0-1.58-5 Q1 9:18BUY YES [A]
2026-04-07 19:52:22NBA-Celtics-0407NBA-Charlotte-0407Tue 7:00p66%¢47¢42+5%B+1.0-4.530-39 Q2 8:12BUY YES [B]
2026-04-07 19:41:47NBA-Celtics-0407NBA-Charlotte-0407Tue 7:00p66%¢52¢42+10%A+1.0-4.523-31 Q2 11:13BUY YES [A]
2026-04-07 19:20:30NBA-Celtics-0407NBA-Charlotte-0407Tue 7:00p66%¢61¢56+5%B+0.0-4.513-16 Q1 6:17BUY YES [B]
2026-04-07 19:20:03NBA-Celtics-0407NBA-Charlotte-0407Tue 7:00p66%¢64¢56+8%A+0.0-4.513-13 Q1 6:41BUY YES [A]

📅 Yesterday's Review — Tuesday, May 19

1
NBA Wins
0
NBA Losses
1
Bounces
1
Buy Signals
0
Sell Signals

🏀 NBA

TeamPregameLowHighResultSignalsScore
New York Knicks
vs Cleveland Cavaliers
72c1c100cWINBUY 63c BOUNCEFINAL 115-104

🎯 BillyBot Signals Deep Dive — Tuesday, May 19

TeamGradePregameEntryBounceScore at SignalResult
New York Knicks
vs Cleveland Cavaliers
B70c63c78-10 Q1 5:37WIN
New York Knicks
vs Cleveland Cavaliers
A70c64c810-13 Q1 4:33WIN
# BILLYBOT NBA SIGNAL RECAP ## 1. SIGNAL SCORECARD **New York Knicks B Grade**: Entry 63c, WIN 115-104. Signal triggered on minor 8-10 deficit but Knicks responded immediately and controlled the game - solid bounce-back logic execution. **New York Knicks A Grade**: Entry 64c, WIN 115-104. Upgraded signal at 10-13 deficit captured perfect entry timing as Knicks began their dominant run. **Overall Record: 2 wins / 2 total (100%)** ## 2. VOLATILITY REPORT **Most Volatile:** 1. **New York Knicks (99c swing)**: Classic overreaction pattern - market panicked from 72c to 1c on early deficit, then full reversal to 100c as Knicks dominated. Textbook emotional pricing that our signals capitalized on perfectly. **Note**: Only one game provided in volatility data. Need additional games to complete top 3 most volatile and bottom 2 steadiest analysis. ## 3. GRADE ANALYSIS **Grade A Performance**: 1/1 (100%) - A-grade upgrade at 4:33 Q1 captured optimal entry timing **Grade B Performance**: 1/1 (100%) - B-grade signal slightly earlier but still profitable Pattern emerging: Grade A signals appearing to time entries more precisely during actual momentum shifts, while B grades catch the initial dip. Both profitable but A-grade showing superior entry optimization. ## 4. WHAT BILLYBOT CAUGHT / WHAT IT MISSED **Caught Well**: - Perfect dual-signal approach on Knicks - B grade caught initial opportunity, A grade refined entry timing - Both signals fired within 1-minute window (5:37 to 4:33), showing system responsiveness to evolving game state - 6-7 cent improvement from pregame price despite eventual blowout win **Missed**: Insufficient data to identify missed opportunities, but the 72c to 1c crash suggests there may have been additional entry points during the extreme oversell that weren't flagged. ## 5. TREND WATCH 1. **Upgrade Signal Value**: The Grade A signal firing just 64 seconds after Grade B at a slightly better price suggests the upgrade system is adding real timing value, not just noise. 2. **Early Deficit Overreactions**: Knicks dropped to 1c on a minor early deficit in what became an 11-point win. Market continues to overweight opening minutes - this emotional pricing creates consistent opportunities. 3. **Signal Clustering**: Both profitable signals fired within 64 seconds in Q1. Worth monitoring if optimal entries cluster in early game periods when market sentiment is most volatile.

📌 Today's Analysis

Oklahoma City Thunder opens at 68c as home favorite (— spread) — bounce watch if price drops to 47c or below
New York Knicks opens at 68c as home favorite (— spread) — bounce watch if price drops to 47c or below
San Antonio Spurs opens at 55c as home favorite (— spread) — bounce watch if price drops to 47c or below
San Antonio Spurs opens at 54c as home favorite (— spread) — bounce watch if price drops to 47c or below

📋 Signal Framework

SignalTriggerAction
🟢 BUY WARNINGHome favorite drops to 47c or below mid-gameConsider entry — your call
🔔 SELL WARNINGPrice recovers to 70c after entryConsider exit — your call
🚫 No BUY SignalQ4 with less than 8 minutes remainingToo late to enter
⚠️ Limit WarnPosition drops below 50c after entryAssess hold vs cut

📰 Daily News — May 20, 2026  ·  Updated: 12:00 PM

SPURS @ THUNDER — Fox DTD clouds upset bid
De'Aaron Fox's day-to-day status creates major uncertainty for San Antonio's offensive ceiling against a Thunder squad missing only role player Thomas Sorber. Kalshi prices OKC at 68c vs ESPN's 62.2% win probability. Thunder overpriced — fair value closer to 62c with Fox's availability unclear.

📊 Morning Brief — 2026-05-20

## TODAY'S PREVIEW The 2026 NBA season average home favorite win rate is 55% -- teams priced above 55c are market favorites, below 55c are undervalued. **Oklahoma City Thunder (68c)** sits 13c above fair value as a heavy chalk home favorite against San Antonio. At this price level, any early game momentum shift could trigger a bounce toward the 47c threshold. The Thunder's home court advantage is well-established, but 68c leaves little margin for variance in what could be a competitive Western Conference matchup. **New York Knicks (68c)** also priced 13c above fair value hosting Cleveland on Thursday. The Knicks showed yesterday they can deliver as home favorites, but back-to-back home games at this price point creates bounce opportunity if Cleveland shows early resistance. Thursday's 7:00p tip gives prime exposure to market volatility. **San Antonio Spurs (55c, 54c)** appear twice as home favorites, priced at fair value Friday and 1c above Sunday. These represent the most efficiently priced games on the slate, offering limited bounce potential but solid fundamental value. Both matchups against Oklahoma City suggest competitive games where 55c pricing reflects true probability. **Cleveland Cavaliers (48c)** appears twice as near-even home teams against New York. At 7c below the home favorite threshold, these TIER2 games require deeper dips to 30c or below to trigger action. Saturday and Monday's identical 48c pricing suggests market consistency but limited immediate opportunity. **TONIGHT'S PLAY PRIORITY:** 1) Thunder 68c - most overvalued home favorite, prime bounce candidate if Spurs show early fight, trigger at 47c; 2) Tomorrow's Knicks 68c - identical overvaluation with back-to-back game fatigue factor, trigger at 47c. ## SITTING BUYS **Oklahoma City Thunder | Buy at 45c | Strong bounce candidate as heaviest chalk, 13c overvalued** **New York Knicks | Buy at 46c | Back-to-back home games at 68c creates volatility opportunity** **San Antonio Spurs (Fri) | Buy at 38c | Fair value pricing limits bounce, deeper entry for momentum shifts** **San Antonio Spurs (Sun) | Buy at 37c | Slight overvaluation but competitive matchup requires deeper discount** **Cleveland Cavaliers (Sat) | Buy at 25c | TIER2 near-even game needs 30c breach to activate** **Cleveland Cavaliers (Mon) | Buy at 24c | Second TIER2 identical setup, slightly deeper for late-slate value** ## YESTERDAY'S REVIEW **New York Knicks:** 72c pregame, 1c session low, WIN 115-104. Perfect bounce setup executed with BUY signal fired at 63c delivering clean winner.
Kalshi: 09:47:10  ·  Odds: 09:04:28